A Gram Research analysis of the Ebetsu Active Future Study found that 53.6% of healthy Japanese adults aged 55-75 showed signs of mild cognitive impairment, with prevalence increasing with age. Researchers are following 1,189 participants through 2032 to identify blood tests that predict memory problems early and discover which diets and habits protect brain health as people age.
Researchers in Japan are following over 1,100 healthy older adults to understand how thinking skills change with age and what might prevent memory problems. Starting in 2023, the Ebetsu Active Future Study checks participants’ brain function, physical health, blood work, and lifestyle habits every year through 2032. Early results show that more than half of participants have mild thinking changes, and researchers are looking for blood tests that could catch memory problems early. This long-term study aims to discover which foods and habits help keep brains sharp as people get older.
Key Statistics
A 2026 cohort study of 1,189 Japanese adults found that 53.6% showed signs of mild cognitive impairment, with prevalence increasing with age, according to the Ebetsu Active Future Study published in BMJ Open.
The Ebetsu Active Future Study maintained a 98.5% follow-up rate through 2025, demonstrating high participant engagement in this long-term brain health research involving 1,189 older adults.
Among 1,189 participants in the Ebetsu Active Future Study, 22.1% carried one copy of the APOE4 gene associated with increased Alzheimer’s disease risk, and 1.2% carried two copies.
The Ebetsu Active Future Study is collecting annual data from 1,189 healthy older adults through 2032 to identify blood-based biomarkers for detecting mild cognitive impairment and explore dietary strategies for preventing dementia.
The Quick Take
- What they studied: How thinking skills, physical health, and mental well-being change in older adults over time, and what blood tests might predict memory problems early
- Who participated: 1,189 Japanese adults aged 55-75 years old who are healthy and independent, recruited from Ebetsu City starting in August 2023
- Key finding: About 53.6% of participants showed signs of mild thinking changes (mild cognitive impairment), and this increased with age. The study maintained a 98.5% follow-up rate through 2025, showing strong participant commitment
- What it means for you: This research may eventually help doctors catch memory problems earlier through simple blood tests, and identify foods and habits that protect brain health. However, results are still being collected and won’t be complete until 2032
The Research Details
The Ebetsu Active Future Study is a long-term follow-up study, meaning researchers recruit a group of people and check on them repeatedly over many years. Starting in 2023, researchers invited older adults in Ebetsu City, Japan to participate in annual health check-ups. During each visit, participants complete thinking tests (like the Montreal Cognitive Assessment), physical fitness tests, blood work, and answer questions about their diet, lifestyle, and medical history.
The researchers store blood samples at very cold temperatures (-80°C) so they can run new tests on them in the future as technology improves. This is smart planning because it means they can look for new biomarkers (signs in the blood that indicate disease) without asking participants to come back for more blood draws. The study plans to follow these same people every year until 2032, giving researchers nine years of information about how their brains and bodies change.
Following the same people over many years is one of the best ways to understand how aging affects the brain. Unlike studies that compare different age groups at one point in time, this approach shows real changes in real people. The high follow-up rate (98.5% of people came back for their second and third check-ups) means the results are reliable and not skewed by people dropping out. Storing biological samples allows researchers to discover new blood tests for memory problems without repeating expensive procedures.
This is a well-designed study with several strengths: it has a large sample size (1,189 participants), a high retention rate (98.5% came back for follow-ups), and uses standardized, validated tests for measuring thinking skills. The study is ongoing, so final results aren’t available yet. The participants are all independent and healthy at baseline, which means findings may not apply to people with serious health problems or those needing care assistance. The study focuses on one Japanese city, so results may differ in other countries or populations.
What the Results Show
When researchers tested participants’ thinking skills using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, they found that 53.6% showed signs of mild cognitive impairment (MCI)—a condition where thinking skills are slightly weaker than normal but not severe enough to be called dementia. This is important because MCI is sometimes an early warning sign that memory problems might get worse over time, though not everyone with MCI develops dementia.
The study also found that mild thinking changes became more common as people got older. This makes sense because aging naturally affects brain function, but it also suggests that researchers might be able to identify people at risk earlier if they know what to look for.
Regarding genetics, researchers tested for the APOE4 gene, which is known to increase the risk of Alzheimer’s disease. They found that 1.2% of participants carried two copies of this risky gene (homozygous), and 22.1% carried one copy (heterozygous). This genetic information, combined with blood tests and thinking assessments, might help doctors predict who is most likely to develop memory problems.
The study maintained excellent follow-up rates through the first three years (98.5% by 2025), which is unusually high for long-term research. This suggests that the participants are engaged and committed to the study, and that the annual check-ups are manageable and acceptable to older adults. The researchers also collected detailed information about lifestyle, diet, and medical history, which will allow them to explore connections between daily habits and brain health. For example, they plan to examine whether certain diets might protect against memory decline.
The finding that over half of participants have mild cognitive impairment is consistent with other research showing that thinking changes are common in older adults. However, this study is unique because it will follow the same people for nine years, allowing researchers to see who actually develops dementia and who remains stable. Previous studies have suggested that blood-based biomarkers could predict memory problems, but this study aims to identify which specific blood markers work best in a real-world population.
The study participants are all independent and healthy at the start, so findings may not apply to people with serious illnesses or those who need help with daily activities. The study focuses on residents of one Japanese city, so results might be different in other countries or ethnic groups. The study is still ongoing (data collection continues through 2032), so researchers haven’t yet published results about which diets or habits actually prevent memory decline—those findings will come later. Additionally, having mild cognitive impairment doesn’t mean someone will definitely develop dementia, so the practical meaning of the 53.6% finding is still being studied.
The Bottom Line
Based on this research so far: (1) Older adults should stay mentally and physically active, as this study is designed to explore protective factors. (2) Regular health check-ups that include thinking skills assessments may help catch early memory changes. (3) Knowing your family history of memory problems and genetic risk factors (like APOE4) could help guide preventive strategies. Confidence level: Moderate—these are emerging findings from an ongoing study, not yet definitive recommendations.
This research is most relevant to adults aged 55 and older who want to maintain brain health and prevent memory problems. It’s also important for family members of people with dementia, healthcare providers who care for older adults, and public health officials planning aging-friendly communities. People with serious health conditions or cognitive impairment should discuss these findings with their doctors. Younger adults may find this relevant for understanding long-term brain health planning.
This study won’t have final results until 2032. However, researchers may publish findings about blood biomarkers and diet strategies within the next 1-3 years as they analyze data from the first few years of follow-up. Any lifestyle changes based on this research (like diet modifications or increased physical activity) typically show brain health benefits over months to years, not immediately.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of older adults have mild cognitive impairment?
The Ebetsu Active Future Study found that 53.6% of healthy Japanese adults aged 55-75 showed signs of mild cognitive impairment. This increased with age, suggesting thinking changes are common but not inevitable as people get older.
Can blood tests predict memory problems before they happen?
Researchers are currently studying this question. The Ebetsu Active Future Study is analyzing blood samples from 1,189 participants to identify biomarkers that might predict memory decline early, but results won’t be available until 2032.
Does having the APOE4 gene mean you’ll get Alzheimer’s disease?
Not necessarily. The APOE4 gene increases risk but doesn’t guarantee disease. In this study, 22.1% of participants carried one copy and 1.2% carried two copies. Many people with this gene never develop dementia, especially if they maintain healthy habits.
What can I do now to protect my brain health?
While this study is still collecting data, research suggests staying mentally active (puzzles, learning), physically active (150+ minutes weekly), socially engaged, and eating a healthy diet. The Ebetsu study will provide more specific dietary recommendations by 2032.
How long will this brain health study take?
The Ebetsu Active Future Study follows participants annually through 2032, meaning nine years of data collection. Researchers have already completed three years (2023-2025) with a 98.5% follow-up rate, showing strong participant commitment.
Want to Apply This Research?
- Track monthly cognitive activities (puzzles, reading, learning new skills) and weekly physical exercise minutes. Compare these habits against any future findings about protective factors for brain health.
- Use the app to set reminders for brain-healthy activities: daily mental exercises (20 minutes), weekly social engagement (2+ hours), and regular physical activity (150 minutes). Log these activities to identify patterns that correlate with how you feel mentally.
- Create a quarterly self-assessment of thinking skills (memory, focus, word-finding) and track alongside lifestyle factors. If available, share results with healthcare providers during annual check-ups to monitor for changes over time.
This article describes an ongoing research study and should not be interpreted as medical advice. The Ebetsu Active Future Study is still collecting data through 2032, and final conclusions about preventing memory decline have not yet been published. If you have concerns about your memory or thinking skills, consult with a healthcare provider who can perform appropriate evaluations. Genetic testing for APOE4 should only be done under medical supervision with appropriate counseling about results. This research applies to healthy, independent older adults and may not apply to people with existing health conditions or cognitive impairment.
This research translation is published by Gram Research, the science division of Gram, an AI-powered nutrition tracking app.
