Scientists studied over 1,000 older adults for about 7 years to figure out which tests best predict how long someone will live. They looked at 14 different measurements, including blood tests, strength tests, and a special DNA test that measures biological aging. The DNA test called DunedinPACE turned out to be the best predictor of who might pass away during the study period. This discovery could help doctors identify people who need extra health support and help researchers test new treatments to slow aging.
The Quick Take
- What they studied: Which measurements best predict how long older people will live and whether a DNA-based aging test works better than traditional health tests
- Who participated: 1,083 people aged 60-80 from Berlin, Germany, followed for an average of 7.4 years to see who remained healthy and who passed away
- Key finding: A DNA test measuring biological aging (DunedinPACE) was the strongest predictor of mortality, outperforming 13 other common health measurements including blood tests, strength tests, and balance tests
- What it means for you: This test may help doctors identify people at higher risk of health problems earlier, though it’s still being studied and isn’t yet a standard medical tool. The test measures how fast your body is aging at the cellular level, which appears to be more important than many traditional health measurements.
The Research Details
Researchers followed 1,083 older adults in Berlin, Germany for about 7 years, measuring 14 different aging markers at the start of the study. These markers included blood tests (measuring inflammation and growth factors), physical tests (measuring strength, balance, and walking speed), thinking and memory tests, and a special DNA test that measures biological aging. They tracked who stayed healthy and who passed away during the study period, then used statistical analysis to see which measurements were best at predicting death.
The researchers tested each measurement separately and together to see how well they predicted mortality. They also looked at whether results changed when they separated people by cause of death (like heart disease versus cancer). This approach allowed them to identify which measurements were truly important and which ones weren’t as useful.
Understanding which aging measurements matter most helps scientists develop better tools for doctors to use. Instead of using many different tests, doctors could focus on the most predictive ones. This is especially important because the DNA-based aging test (DunedinPACE) is relatively new, and this study provides strong evidence that it works better than many traditional health measurements that doctors have used for decades.
This study is reliable because it followed a large group of people for many years, used statistical methods that adjusted for other important factors (like age, sex, and lifestyle), and tested results in multiple ways. The researchers were transparent about which measurements did and didn’t predict mortality. However, the study only included people from Berlin, so results might differ in other populations. The study is recent and published in a peer-reviewed journal, meaning other experts reviewed the work before publication.
What the Results Show
Among all 14 aging measurements tested, five were statistically significant predictors of mortality: hand grip strength, inflammation marker (IL-6), standing balance, cognitive health (thinking and memory), and the epigenetic clock (DunedinPACE). The epigenetic clock emerged as the strongest predictor, meaning it was the best at identifying who was at risk of passing away.
Interestingly, several measurements that doctors commonly use did NOT predict mortality in this study, including blood pressure, walking speed, muscle mass, and a frailty score. This suggests these traditional measurements may not be as important as previously thought for predicting lifespan in older adults.
When researchers looked at just three measurements—muscle mass, standing balance, and the epigenetic clock—they could predict mortality almost as well as using all 14 measurements combined. This suggests a simpler approach might work just as well as a complicated one.
The results held true when researchers looked at different causes of death separately, suggesting the epigenetic clock’s predictive power isn’t limited to one specific disease. Hand grip strength and standing balance also remained important across different causes of death. The fact that a minimal set of three measurements performed nearly as well as all 14 suggests that biological aging (measured by the DNA test) is more important than many individual health measurements.
This study confirms what some previous research suggested: that biological aging at the cellular level (measured through DNA changes) may be more important than traditional health measurements. However, this is one of the first large studies to directly compare the epigenetic clock (DunedinPACE) against so many other aging measurements in a real-world population. The finding that hand grip strength and standing balance remain important aligns with previous research showing that physical function matters for longevity.
The study only included people from Berlin, Germany, so results might not apply to other populations with different genetics or lifestyles. The study followed people for about 7 years, which is good but relatively short for aging research. The researchers didn’t test whether the epigenetic clock could be changed by interventions like exercise or diet, so we don’t know if improving this measurement would actually extend lifespan. Additionally, the study measured the epigenetic clock at only one point in time, so we don’t know how it changes over years.
The Bottom Line
Based on this research, the epigenetic clock (DunedinPACE) appears to be a promising tool for identifying people at higher risk of mortality. However, it’s not yet available as a standard medical test. If you’re interested in aging research, staying physically active (to maintain balance and grip strength) and keeping your mind sharp remain evidence-based recommendations. This research should encourage doctors to consider new biological aging tests alongside traditional measurements. Confidence level: Moderate—this is strong evidence from one well-designed study, but more research in different populations is needed.
This research matters most to older adults (60+), their doctors, and researchers developing new treatments for aging. People interested in longevity and healthy aging should pay attention. Healthcare providers should consider this when developing screening tools. However, this doesn’t mean everyone needs this test immediately—it’s still being studied. People with serious health conditions should focus on managing those conditions with their doctor rather than waiting for new aging tests.
The epigenetic clock measures biological aging that has already happened, so it won’t show changes quickly. If someone made lifestyle changes to slow their biological aging, it might take months to years to see improvements in this measurement. The study doesn’t tell us how fast biological aging can be reversed, so realistic expectations are important.
Want to Apply This Research?
- Track weekly standing balance tests (how long you can stand on one leg) and monthly hand grip strength measurements using a simple grip strength meter. These are two of the three most important predictors identified in this study and are easy to measure at home.
- Use the app to set reminders for daily balance exercises (like standing on one leg while brushing teeth) and weekly grip strength training (using resistance bands or hand weights). These activities directly target two of the strongest mortality predictors from this research.
- Create a monthly dashboard showing trends in balance and grip strength over time. Set goals to maintain or improve these measurements. Also track cognitive activities (puzzles, reading, learning) since cognitive health was another significant predictor. This gives users actionable metrics they can influence, even if the epigenetic clock test isn’t yet available to consumers.
This research is informational and should not replace medical advice from your doctor. The epigenetic clock (DunedinPACE) is a research tool and is not yet approved for routine clinical use. If you have concerns about your health or longevity, please consult with your healthcare provider. This study shows associations between measurements and mortality but does not prove that improving these measurements will extend your life. Always discuss new health information with your doctor before making changes to your health routine.
This research translation is published by Gram Research, the science division of Gram, an AI-powered nutrition tracking app.