A 2026 cohort study of 8,010 Hispanic and Latino Americans found that each 10% increase in ultra-processed foods in the diet was associated with a 16% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes over 5.8 years. According to Gram Research analysis, the connection was strongest in Puerto Ricans, US-born participants, and people who were overweight, suggesting that reducing processed foods may help prevent diabetes in these groups.
A major study of over 8,000 Hispanic and Latino Americans found that eating more ultra-processed foods—like sugary drinks, processed meats, and packaged snacks—increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Researchers tracked participants for nearly 6 years and discovered that for every 10% increase in ultra-processed foods in someone’s diet, their diabetes risk went up by 16%. The connection was strongest for Puerto Ricans, people born in the US, and those who were overweight. The findings suggest that cutting back on processed foods could help prevent diabetes in Hispanic communities.
Key Statistics
A 2026 cohort study of 8,010 Hispanic and Latino Americans published in the American Journal of Epidemiology found that each 10-percentage-point increase in ultra-processed foods was associated with a 16% higher incidence of type 2 diabetes over an average follow-up of 5.8 years.
Among Puerto Rican participants in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos, each 10-percentage-point increase in ultra-processed food intake was linked to a 22% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes, compared to 16% in the overall sample.
In the 2026 analysis of 8,010 Hispanic and Latino adults, artificially-sweetened beverages and processed poultry or fish were associated with higher type 2 diabetes incidence across the entire study population, with 1,273 diabetes cases occurring during follow-up.
US-born Hispanic and Latino participants in the study showed a 26% higher diabetes risk for each 10-percentage-point increase in ultra-processed foods, compared to 16% in the overall sample, suggesting that acculturation to US food patterns may increase diabetes susceptibility.
The Quick Take
- What they studied: Whether eating ultra-processed foods (packaged snacks, sugary drinks, processed meats) increases the chances of developing type 2 diabetes in Hispanic and Latino people living in the US.
- Who participated: 8,010 Hispanic and Latino adults with no diabetes at the start, tracked for an average of 5.8 years between 2008 and 2017. The group included people from different Hispanic backgrounds, both US-born and immigrants, with varying weights and eating habits.
- Key finding: Each 10% increase in ultra-processed foods in someone’s diet was linked to a 16% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This connection was especially strong in Puerto Ricans, US-born participants, and people who were overweight or obese.
- What it means for you: Reducing ultra-processed foods in your diet may help lower your risk of type 2 diabetes, especially if you’re Hispanic or Latino, US-born, or overweight. However, this study shows association, not proof that processed foods cause diabetes—other factors like genetics and overall lifestyle matter too.
The Research Details
This was a cohort study, meaning researchers followed the same group of people over time to see who developed diabetes and what they ate. At the beginning (2008-2011), participants reported everything they ate over 24 hours and answered questions about their food habits. Researchers then checked back 5-6 years later to see who had developed type 2 diabetes. They used a system called the Nova framework to identify ultra-processed foods—basically, foods that are heavily manufactured with added ingredients, colors, and preservatives.
The researchers carefully adjusted their analysis for things that could affect the results, like age, income, how long someone had lived in the US, exercise habits, family history of diabetes, and overall diet quality. This helps them isolate the effect of ultra-processed foods specifically. They looked at both total ultra-processed food intake and specific types, like sugary drinks, processed meats, and packaged breads.
Following real people over years is more reliable than short-term studies because it shows what actually happens in people’s lives. By studying a diverse group of Hispanic and Latino Americans, researchers could see if the effects were the same across different backgrounds and whether being born in the US or having Puerto Rican heritage made a difference. This approach is stronger than just asking people to remember what they ate long ago.
This study is fairly strong because it tracked a large number of people (8,010) for several years and used detailed dietary information. The researchers measured diabetes using both self-reports and blood tests, which is more accurate than relying on memory alone. However, people may not remember exactly what they ate, and the study only followed people for about 6 years, so longer-term effects aren’t clear. The study shows association (eating processed foods and developing diabetes happened together) but can’t prove that processed foods directly caused the diabetes.
What the Results Show
Ultra-processed foods made up about 20% of what the study participants ate by weight. Over the follow-up period, 1,273 people developed type 2 diabetes. For every 10 percentage-point increase in ultra-processed foods (meaning if someone went from eating 20% processed foods to 30%), their diabetes risk increased by 16%.
When researchers looked at specific groups, the effect was strongest in Puerto Ricans (22% higher risk per 10% increase in processed foods) and US-born participants (26% higher risk). People who were overweight or obese also showed a clear connection (16% higher risk), but the link was weaker or not statistically significant in people of normal weight.
Specific types of ultra-processed foods showed different patterns. Artificially-sweetened beverages (diet sodas) and processed poultry or fish were linked to higher diabetes risk across the whole group. In Puerto Ricans and US-born participants, ultra-processed breads, cereals, regular soft drinks, and hard liquors were also associated with higher diabetes risk. Interestingly, ultra-processed sweet snacks and savory snacks showed lower diabetes risk in some groups, which may reflect that people eating these foods were also eating other protective foods.
The study found that diet quality mattered. People eating the lowest-quality diets (measured by the Alternative Healthy Eating Index) showed stronger connections between processed foods and diabetes. This suggests that the overall eating pattern—not just processed foods alone—influences diabetes risk. The findings also differed by heritage: Mexican Americans and Central/South Americans showed weaker associations than Puerto Ricans, suggesting that heritage and cultural food patterns may play a role in how processed foods affect diabetes risk.
This research aligns with previous studies showing that ultra-processed foods increase diabetes risk in general populations. However, this is one of the first large studies to examine these effects specifically in Hispanic and Latino Americans, who have higher rates of type 2 diabetes than other groups. The finding that effects vary by heritage and US nativity is new and important—it suggests that acculturation (adopting US food habits) may increase diabetes risk, and that different Hispanic groups may respond differently to processed foods.
The study relied on people remembering what they ate, which isn’t always accurate. Researchers only measured diet at the beginning, so they didn’t know if eating habits changed over the 6-year follow-up. The study shows that processed foods and diabetes happened together, but can’t prove processed foods caused the diabetes—other unmeasured factors could be involved. Additionally, the study only followed people for about 6 years, so longer-term effects remain unknown. Finally, because the study focused on Hispanic and Latino Americans, results may not apply to other populations.
The Bottom Line
According to Gram Research analysis, reducing ultra-processed foods appears to lower type 2 diabetes risk, particularly for Hispanic and Latino Americans, especially those who are Puerto Rican, US-born, or overweight. Focus on replacing processed foods with whole foods like fresh fruits, vegetables, beans, and unprocessed grains. This recommendation has moderate-to-strong evidence from this large, long-term study, though it’s not definitive proof.
This finding is most relevant for Hispanic and Latino Americans, particularly Puerto Ricans and US-born individuals, and anyone who is overweight or obese. People with a family history of diabetes should also pay attention. However, everyone can benefit from eating fewer ultra-processed foods. The findings don’t apply as strongly to people of normal weight or those from Mexican or Central/South American backgrounds, though reducing processed foods is still generally healthy.
You won’t see changes overnight. Type 2 diabetes develops gradually over years. If you reduce ultra-processed foods now, you might see improvements in blood sugar levels within weeks to months, but the real benefit—preventing diabetes from developing—takes years to show up. Think of it as a long-term investment in your health.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does eating ultra-processed foods cause type 2 diabetes?
This study shows a strong association: people eating more ultra-processed foods developed diabetes more often. However, it doesn’t prove processed foods directly cause diabetes. Other factors like genetics, exercise, and overall diet quality also matter. The connection was strongest in Puerto Ricans and US-born Hispanic Americans.
What counts as ultra-processed food?
Ultra-processed foods are heavily manufactured products with added ingredients, colors, and preservatives. Examples include sugary drinks, diet sodas, packaged snacks, processed deli meats, instant noodles, and mass-produced baked goods. Whole foods like fresh fruits, vegetables, beans, and unprocessed grains are not ultra-processed.
How much can I reduce my diabetes risk by eating less junk food?
The study found that reducing ultra-processed foods by 10% of your diet was associated with a 16% lower diabetes risk. However, this is one study, and real-world results vary based on genetics, exercise, weight, and other factors. Reducing processed foods is one important step among many.
Does this apply to all Hispanic groups equally?
No. The study found stronger effects in Puerto Ricans and US-born Hispanic Americans than in Mexican Americans or Central/South Americans. This suggests that heritage, acculturation, and cultural food patterns influence how ultra-processed foods affect diabetes risk. Everyone benefits from eating less processed food, but the effect size varies.
What should I eat instead of ultra-processed foods?
Replace processed foods with whole foods: fresh fruits and vegetables, beans and legumes, whole grains, nuts, seeds, and unprocessed meats or fish. Cook at home when possible. These foods are nutrient-dense, keep you fuller longer, and help stabilize blood sugar levels naturally.
Want to Apply This Research?
- Track the percentage of ultra-processed foods in your daily diet by logging meals and marking items as ‘processed’ or ‘whole food.’ Aim to reduce processed foods from 20% to 15% of your diet weight over 3 months, then to 10% over 6 months.
- Replace one ultra-processed food daily with a whole food alternative: swap diet soda for water with lemon, packaged snacks for fresh fruit, or processed deli meat for grilled chicken. Log the swap in the app to build momentum.
- Weekly check-ins on processed food percentage, monthly reviews of blood sugar if you have a glucose monitor, and quarterly assessments of energy levels and weight. Set reminders to meal-prep whole foods on weekends to make healthy choices easier during busy weekdays.
This research shows an association between ultra-processed foods and type 2 diabetes risk in Hispanic and Latino populations, but does not prove causation. Individual diabetes risk depends on many factors including genetics, physical activity, weight, and overall diet quality. If you have concerns about your diabetes risk or current blood sugar levels, consult with your healthcare provider or a registered dietitian. This information is for educational purposes and should not replace professional medical advice. People with existing diabetes should work with their healthcare team before making significant dietary changes.
This research translation is published by Gram Research, the science division of Gram, an AI-powered nutrition tracking app.