Research shows that 75 percent of incarcerated men in a Turkish prison had low heart disease risk, but smoking, high blood pressure, and belly fat were strong predictors of higher risk. According to Gram Research analysis of 366 men aged 40 to 69, those with high-risk profiles had significantly worse cholesterol and blood sugar levels, suggesting that lifestyle changes like quitting smoking and exercising could substantially lower their heart disease risk.
Researchers studied 366 men in a Turkish prison to understand their heart disease risk. They found that three-quarters of the inmates had low risk, but smoking, high blood pressure, and extra belly fat were major warning signs. According to Gram Research analysis, the study shows that prisons need better health programs to help prevent heart problems. The findings suggest that simple lifestyle changes like quitting smoking and exercising could protect many incarcerated people from developing serious heart disease.
Key Statistics
A 2026 cross-sectional study of 366 foreign-born men in a Turkish prison found that 74.6 percent had low cardiovascular risk, 21 percent had moderate risk, and 4.4 percent had high or very high risk.
Research from 366 incarcerated men showed that smoking, high blood pressure, and abdominal obesity were the strongest predictors of elevated heart disease risk, with statistical significance of p less than 0.001.
Among 366 men studied in 2023, those with high-risk cardiovascular profiles showed significantly elevated total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HbA1c, and fasting blood glucose compared to low-risk individuals.
The Quick Take
- What they studied: Whether men living in prison have higher risk of heart disease and what factors make that risk worse
- Who participated: 366 foreign-born men aged 40 to 69 years old living in a closed prison in Istanbul, Turkey. Most were Asian, and all were male.
- Key finding: About 75 percent of the men had low heart disease risk, but smoking, high blood pressure, and belly fat were the strongest predictors of higher risk
- What it means for you: If you or someone you know is incarcerated, getting regular health checks and making lifestyle changes like quitting smoking can significantly lower heart disease risk. However, this study only looked at one prison, so results may differ in other settings.
The Research Details
Researchers conducted a cross-sectional study, which means they took a snapshot of health information from 366 men at one point in time rather than following them over years. They collected data between January and March 2023 by interviewing each man, measuring their body size and weight, and taking blood samples to check cholesterol and blood sugar levels. The researchers used official World Health Organization tools to calculate each person’s heart disease risk score, which estimates the chance of having a heart attack or stroke in the next 10 years.
This approach was important because it gave researchers a clear picture of heart disease risk in the prison population without waiting years for health problems to develop. By measuring actual blood work and body measurements rather than just asking people questions, the study provides reliable data about real health conditions.
The study included all eligible men in the prison during the study period, which reduces bias. However, the findings only apply to foreign-born men in this specific Turkish prison, so results may not match other prisons or other countries. The researchers used standardized WHO assessment tools, which are trusted worldwide for measuring heart disease risk.
What the Results Show
The researchers found that most men in the prison had relatively low heart disease risk. Specifically, 74.6 percent were classified as low-risk, meaning they had less than a 10 percent chance of having a heart attack or stroke in the next decade. However, 21 percent had moderate risk, and 4.4 percent had high or very high risk. The median risk score was 6 percent, meaning half the men had risk below 6 percent and half had risk above it.
Four major factors strongly predicted who had higher heart disease risk. First, older age was the strongest predictor: men in their 60s had much higher risk than men in their 40s. Second, smoking was a major risk factor, with smokers showing significantly higher risk scores than non-smokers. Third, high blood pressure, both the top number (systolic) and bottom number (diastolic), was strongly linked to higher risk. Fourth, extra fat around the belly, called abdominal obesity, was also a significant predictor.
Men with high-risk profiles had worse blood test results across the board. They had higher total cholesterol, higher LDL cholesterol (the bad kind), higher HbA1c (a measure of long-term blood sugar control), and higher fasting blood glucose (blood sugar measured after not eating). These differences were statistically significant, meaning they were unlikely to be due to chance.
Interestingly, the length of time a man had been in prison did not predict his heart disease risk. Men who had been incarcerated for many years had similar risk levels to those who had been there for shorter periods. This suggests that the prison environment itself may not be the main driver of heart disease risk, but rather individual factors like smoking and health conditions.
Previous research has shown that incarcerated people often have worse health than the general population, partly due to stress, limited exercise, and poor diet. This study confirms that heart disease risk is a real concern in prisons but shows that the risk levels are not dramatically different from what would be expected in the general population of similar age and health status. The strong connection between smoking, high blood pressure, and heart disease risk matches what researchers have found in non-prison populations.
This study only included men in one prison in Turkey, so the findings may not apply to women, other prisons, or other countries. All participants were foreign-born, which may mean the results do not represent the general prison population. The study was conducted at one point in time, so researchers could not determine whether the risk factors actually caused heart disease or just appeared together. Finally, the study did not track whether men actually developed heart disease later, so the risk predictions are estimates rather than confirmed outcomes.
The Bottom Line
Prison health programs should offer regular heart disease risk screening for all men over age 40. Smoking cessation programs are strongly recommended, as smoking was the most changeable risk factor linked to higher risk. Prisons should also provide healthy food options, exercise programs, and blood pressure monitoring. These interventions have strong evidence supporting their effectiveness in reducing heart disease risk.
This research matters most to prison administrators, healthcare workers in prisons, and incarcerated individuals themselves. It also matters to policymakers deciding how to allocate health resources in correctional facilities. The findings are less directly applicable to people in the general community, though the risk factors identified (smoking, high blood pressure, belly fat) are universal concerns.
Heart disease develops over years, so benefits from lifestyle changes like quitting smoking or exercising would take months to years to fully appear. However, blood pressure can improve within weeks of lifestyle changes, and cholesterol levels typically improve within 4 to 6 weeks of dietary changes. The most important timeline is starting these changes now rather than waiting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main cause of heart disease risk in prisons?
Smoking, high blood pressure, and extra belly fat are the strongest predictors of heart disease risk in incarcerated populations. The study found these factors were statistically significant, though individual lifestyle choices matter more than the prison environment itself.
Can heart disease risk be lowered in prison settings?
Yes. The research suggests that smoking cessation programs, healthy diet options, and exercise programs in prisons can reduce heart disease risk. These preventive measures work the same way in prison as in the general community.
How accurate are heart disease risk predictions for incarcerated people?
The study used World Health Organization risk assessment tools, which are validated worldwide. However, the findings apply specifically to foreign-born men in Turkish prisons, so accuracy may vary in other prison populations or countries.
Does time spent in prison increase heart disease risk?
No. The study found no correlation between how long someone had been incarcerated and their heart disease risk. Individual health factors like smoking and blood pressure matter more than incarceration duration.
What blood tests show high heart disease risk?
High total cholesterol, high LDL cholesterol, elevated HbA1c (long-term blood sugar), and high fasting blood glucose are markers of increased heart disease risk. The study found these were significantly elevated in high-risk individuals.
Want to Apply This Research?
- Track daily smoking status (cigarettes per day or quit date), weekly blood pressure readings if available, and weekly exercise minutes. Users can set a goal to reduce smoking by 10 percent each month or reach 150 minutes of weekly exercise.
- Users can log each day they do not smoke, record exercise sessions, and track blood pressure readings if they have access to a monitor. The app could send reminders for exercise and celebrate smoking-free milestones to build motivation.
- Over 3 to 6 months, users should see trends in their data. Smoking reduction should show a clear downward trend, exercise should accumulate toward the 150-minute weekly goal, and blood pressure should gradually decrease. Users should share this data with healthcare providers to adjust treatment plans as needed.
This research applies specifically to foreign-born men aged 40 to 69 in a Turkish prison and may not represent other populations. Heart disease risk scores are estimates based on statistical models, not diagnoses. Anyone concerned about heart disease risk should consult with a healthcare provider for personalized evaluation and treatment. This article is for educational purposes and should not replace professional medical advice.
This research translation is published by Gram Research, the science division of Gram, an AI-powered nutrition tracking app.